Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30db…33c0
world · 121 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$2,074 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,139 · open −$333
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,720
Realized+$2,139
Unrealized−$333
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses48 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions13
Markets (closed)108 / 121
History coverage116d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 13 History 108 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days+$285
14 days+$486
30 days+$2,715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $2,623 $2,023 −$600 (-23%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 61¢ 78¢ $1,223 $1,557 +$334 (+27%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 59¢ 57¢ $470 $460 −$10 (-2%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 77¢ 61¢ $224 $177 −$47 (-21%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 52¢ 57¢ $151 $165 +$14 (+10%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $87 $90 +$3 (+4%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 43¢ $41 $52 +$11 (+26%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $37 $15 −$22 (-60%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-27%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 3? No 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? No 50¢ 0¢ $308 $0 −$308 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3? No 44¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 2? No 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $189 +$12 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $342 +$198 +58%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $200 +$18 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $55 −$12 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $90 −$41 -45%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $73 −$49 -67%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 +$1 +44%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 12 $19 −$4 -23%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 12 $26 +$9 +33%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $193 −$96 -50%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 12 $30 −$4 -13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $251 −$21 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $110 −$89 -81%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $154 −$144 -93%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $192 +$28 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $213 +$59 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $204 +$108 +53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 09 $70 +$56 +80%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $626 +$191 +30%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $252 +$140 +56%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $322 −$54 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $745 −$101 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 08 $221 −$88 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? Jun 08 $93 +$9 +10%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 08 $24 +$12 +50%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $168 −$20 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $12 −$2 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $28 +$164 +586%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $10 +$120 +1204%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10 +$186 +1860%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $26 −$1 -4%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 04 $10 +$5 +49%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 04 $45 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 3? Jun 03 $44 −$44 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 −$10 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 2? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 2? Jun 02 $9 +$22 +250%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 −$17 -57%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 2? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 1? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $74 −$52 -70%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 94% +$2,020
other 2% +$9
finance 2% +$66
sports 1% −$197
politics 0% −$49
crypto 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 21m
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $219 51m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $4 54m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 48¢ $83 57m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 77¢ $201 57m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $66 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 63¢ $511 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $217 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $218 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $115 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $43 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 26¢ $30 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $300 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $91 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $420 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $10 13h
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 13h
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14h
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 28h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL Yes 23¢ $2 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $8 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 77¢ $80 34h
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $35 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $5 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +97.2% +78.4% 49% 37% -4.9%
≤30d 76 +69.5% +53.3% 49% 41% +9.2%
≤90d 103 +43.6% +29.9% 43% 36% -5.8%
all 108 +41.6% +28.1% 44% 35% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.1% 35% -5.7%
10% +15.8% 25% -14.8%
15% +4.6% 17% -23.0%
20% -5.6% 12% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,719.68 · official $4,720.86 (match) · 1117 history records