Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
30 0x30d7…4df3 crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+12%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$1
other 24% +$8
sports 6% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +26.5% +14.5% 65% 44% +3.8%
≤30d 43 +26.5% +14.5% 65% 44% +3.8%
≤90d 43 +26.5% +14.5% 65% 44% +3.8%
all 43 +26.5% +14.5% 65% 44% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.5% 44% +3.8%
10% +3.5% 33% -6.1%
15% -6.5% 26% -15.2%
20% -15.7% 19% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)43 / 58
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 82¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 82¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +26%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$9 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$13 +654%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 -34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.15 · official $26.16 (match) · 144 history records