Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d5…36bf sports 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,124 (-12%) realized −$25,660 · open −$464
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%106W / 306L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$805per market
Trades / day144.4pace
Fees−$2,962est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$14,378
other 28% −$5,932
crypto 2% +$1,970
world 0% −$1,080
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-47.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 -60.9% -64.6% 15% 13% -33.9%
≤30d 412 -42.2% -47.7% 26% 24% -29.5%
≤90d 412 -42.2% -47.7% 26% 24% -29.5%
all 412 -42.2% -47.7% 26% 24% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.7% 24% -29.5%
10% -52.7% 22% -36.2%
15% ← realistic here -57.3% 20% -42.4%
20% -61.5% 16% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$784) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$662 vs −$398 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,473
Realized−$25,660
Unrealized−$464
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses106 / 306
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$2,962
Open positions5
Markets (closed)412 / 282
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$805
Trades / day144.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $940 $950 +$10 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 54¢ $105 $268 +$162 (+155%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 20¢ $54 $184 +$130 (+242%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 20¢ $165 $61 −$104 (-63%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 46¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-14%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 294 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $614 −$614 -100%
New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $157 −$160 -102%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 16 $1,739 −$1,739 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $97 −$101 -104%
IK Start vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $226 −$226 -100%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $778 −$778 -100%
Córdoba CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $151 −$151 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $325 −$325 -100%
Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,105 −$1,105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $939 −$939 -100%
Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw? Jun 16 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $730 −$731 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Aalesunds FK vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$22 -81%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-21? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro Jun 16 $158 −$158 -100%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $315 −$315 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Pharco FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $56 −$58 -103%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) Jun 16 $182 −$182 -100%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,090 −$1,090 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Charlotte FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $914 −$914 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $955 0m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $11 31m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $55 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $110 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $107 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $56 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,598 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $357 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 84¢ $1,003 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $465 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $1 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $1 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $1 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $1 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $7 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $358 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $1 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 43¢ $525 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $0 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $23 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $75 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $285 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $3 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $1 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $37 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $0 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 60¢ $1,093 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $120 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $256 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,473.30 · official $1,471.50 (match) · 3500 history records