Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d5…5066 other 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$41
sports 25% −$27
politics 8% −$8
economics 7% −$8
culture 6% −$8
crypto 5% −$2
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage142d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $171 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $376 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $732 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $450 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $239 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $834 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $245 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $338 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $149 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $388 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $411 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $255 +$1 +0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $789 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $279 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $259 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $292 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 3h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 4h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 5h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 7h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 8h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 13h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 14h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 19h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 21h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 23h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 26h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $54 29h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $54 31h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 37h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 39h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $36 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $19 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $12 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1539 history records