Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d3…d015 other 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$265 (-1%) realized −$610 · open +$345
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate63%171W / 99L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$1,505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days+$90
14 days−$233
30 days−$1,604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$1,330
crypto 14% +$40
world 12% +$292
politics 3% −$135
finance 3% +$7
economics 0% −$67
sports 0% −$17
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +125.9% +104.4% 73% 36% -6.8%
≤30d 145 +26.9% +14.8% 66% 19% -15.7%
≤90d 270 +12.4% +1.7% 63% 26% -14.7%
all 270 +12.4% +1.7% 63% 26% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 26% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 14% -22.8%
15% -16.9% 10% -30.3%
20% -25.1% 9% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$33 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,505
Realized−$610
Unrealized+$345
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses171 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions58
Markets (closed)270 / 278
History coverage67d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $626 $677 +$51 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 42¢ $9 $104 +$94 (+1005%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 38¢ $9 $91 +$82 (+875%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 50¢ $15 $76 +$61 (+405%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 38¢ $15 $56 +$41 (+275%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $8 $48 +$40 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $8 $48 +$40 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $8 $39 +$32 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $8 $39 +$31 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $8 $39 +$31 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $8 $31 +$23 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $8 $31 +$23 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+173%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+173%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $9 $20 +$11 (+117%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+121%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 90¢ 91¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$101 +1006%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $75 −$10 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $300 −$299 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $120 +$20 +16%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $140 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$99 +3084%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $290 +$242 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $125 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1 +$19 +1841%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $407 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $35 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $280 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 04 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $300 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 12h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 26h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 26h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 26h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 26h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 26h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 26h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 28h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 30h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $142 34h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 37h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $140 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $141 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $140 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,505.17 · official $1,505.18 (match) · 2137 history records