Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d3…11fd politics 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,107 (-2%) realized −$2,109 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%27W / 92L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,071per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$926now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$24
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$62
other 31% −$1,456
sports 14% −$539
world 4% −$63
culture 4% −$6
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -22.2% -29.6% 9% 1% -12.2%
all 119 -8.4% -17.1% 23% 8% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 8% -11.0%
10% -25.0% 8% -19.5%
15% -32.3% 7% -27.3%
20% -38.9% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,428) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$926
Realized−$2,109
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses27 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,071
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $724 $726 +$2 (+0%)
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,376 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,596 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $6,148 −$8 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,066 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $345 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $651 +$3 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $619 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,706 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,173 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,920 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $6,094 −$7 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $796 +$2 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,924 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,379 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,675 −$4 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,426 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,666 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,402 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 13 $1,310 −$1 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 13 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $72 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 05 $33 −$4 -12%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) Apr 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14? Apr 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $724 45h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,138 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,321 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,322 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,290 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,291 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,156 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,157 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,209 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,211 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,426 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,428 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,403 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,405 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,288 12d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,290 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,475 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,477 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,271 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,272 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,256 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,258 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,246 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $581 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $582 17d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $618 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $619 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $926.35 · official $926.35 (match) · 378 history records