Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x30d1…4525 world 432 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$39,343 (+28%) realized +$36,670 · open +$2,673
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate70%286W / 121L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$40,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 151d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$8,166
politics 26% +$6,627
other 24% +$4,780
economics 2% +$111
tech 0% +$55
finance 0% +$20
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -59.1% -63.0% 25% 17% -50.3%
≤30d 102 -31.1% -37.7% 44% 25% -19.7%
≤90d 268 +1.3% -8.4% 67% 34% -0.9%
all 407 +15.8% +4.8% 70% 35% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 35% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -5.3% 21% -8.9%
15% -14.4% 17% -17.7%
20% -22.8% 15% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$103 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$40,123
Realized+$36,670
Unrealized+$2,673
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses286 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions95
Markets (closed)407 / 432
History coverage151d ⚠
Avg bet$331
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 95 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No 90¢ 94¢ $4,103 $4,296 +$193 (+5%)
SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $4,030 $4,282 +$252 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $4,006 $4,069 +$63 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $2,431 $2,499 +$68 (+3%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $2,104 $2,113 +$9 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 93¢ $1,854 $2,094 +$241 (+13%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 67¢ 90¢ $1,329 $1,776 +$447 (+34%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 65¢ 74¢ $1,007 $1,156 +$150 (+15%)
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,091 $1,130 +$39 (+4%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 71¢ 62¢ $1,152 $1,018 −$133 (-12%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $947 $975 +$28 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $811 $842 +$30 (+4%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? No 89¢ 93¢ $770 $807 +$37 (+5%)
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 100¢ $544 $780 +$237 (+44%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? No 65¢ 86¢ $539 $713 +$175 (+32%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 69¢ 62¢ $752 $679 −$74 (-10%)
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $670 $677 +$7 (+1%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? No 71¢ 80¢ $531 $593 +$62 (+12%)
Blue wave in 2026? Yes 44¢ 74¢ $323 $540 +$217 (+67%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 89¢ 98¢ $477 $531 +$53 (+11%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $417 $442 +$24 (+6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $405 $431 +$27 (+7%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 44¢ $384 $418 +$33 (+9%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $389 $403 +$13 (+3%)
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $363 $397 +$34 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30? Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 20 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30? Jun 20 $25 −$19 -75%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Jun 20 $14 +$41 +303%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in September? Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Zelensky events on August 18? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in August? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Israel or the US target Tehran? Jun 20 $219 −$219 -100%
Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by November 30? Jun 20 $36 −$37 -103%
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 20 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +80%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30? Jun 20 $14 −$29 -209%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in July? Jun 20 $22 −$24 -106%
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jun 20 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Thailand capture Preah Vihear temple by July 31? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 12 ET? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$38 -711%
Will Larry Page be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Jun 20 $8 $0 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal pr Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea by November 30 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by September 30? Jun 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams? Jun 20 $139 −$139 -100%
Israel military action against Qatar in 2025? Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum Jun 20 $117 −$117 -100%
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1? Jun 20 $59 −$53 -90%
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 49m
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $270 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 4h
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $0 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 12h
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? BUY No 96¢ $104 15h
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? BUY No 95¢ $24 17h
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? BUY No 95¢ $24 17h
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? BUY No 95¢ $48 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $88 23h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 79¢ $86 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 89¢ $66 24h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 28h
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $0 33h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 36h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $591 38h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $77 39h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 80¢ $37 41h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 75¢ $46 41h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $28 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 38¢ $306 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $188 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $191 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $1 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $2 43h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $29 44h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $32 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,122.90 · official $40,123.49 (match) · 3500 history records