Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30d0…b1d5 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$242 (-3%) realized −$244 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%44W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$13
other 23% −$35
world 12% −$130
economics 11% +$14
tech 8% +$8
politics 5% −$116
finance 4% +$2
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 11 -7.4% -16.2% 91% 0% -14.8%
all 47 -4.6% -13.7% 94% 2% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 2% -12.2%
10% -22.0% 2% -20.6%
15% -29.5% 2% -28.3%
20% -36.4% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$108 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses44 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage616d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $223 $225 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $130 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? Jun 15 $170 +$3 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 07 $155 +$6 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 07 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 17 $200 +$3 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $150 −$150 -100%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $180 +$7 +4%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 05 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 1 Mar 29 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 29 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Mar 11 $230 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 11 $244 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $210 +$2 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Feb 02 $466 +$5 +1%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 21 $13 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Jan 06 $166 +$2 +1%
BNB all time high by December 31? Jan 06 $301 +$2 +1%
Will BNB dip to $600 in November? Dec 14 $455 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on November 12? Nov 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 11? Nov 18 $344 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 31? Nov 11 $460 +$3 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 31 $400 +$6 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October Oct 21 $152 $0 +0%
$YZY listed on Coinbase or Binance by September 30? Oct 06 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 22 $204 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8? Aug 21 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3100 and $3200 on July 23? Aug 04 $203 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 22 $85 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,600 on July 16? Jul 22 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jul 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on June 6? Jul 15 $166 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? Jun 05 $189 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Noboa win by 4-6%? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Solana all time high in April? May 16 $163 +$1 +0%
Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act signed into law by March 31? Apr 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 26 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Solana hit $400 by February 28 2025? Mar 11 $180 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 18 $120 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? Feb 18 $90 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Jan 02 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Dec 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $121 −$121 -100%
Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election? Nov 27 $8 +$3 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 98¢ $140 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $223 9d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $130 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 47d
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 98¢ $170 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $200 67d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 97¢ $150 79d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $155 79d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 79d
US strike on Cuba by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $300 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? BUY No 99¢ $161 105d
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $180 105d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 1 BUY No 99¢ $150 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? BUY No 100¢ $230 142d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $244 142d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $210 153d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting SELL Yes 99¢ $198 153d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting BUY Yes 98¢ $466 169d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? BUY No 98¢ $13 169d
BNB all time high by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $301 191d
Ethereum all time high by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $166 191d
Will BNB dip to $600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $455 218d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $344 225d
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on November 12? BUY No 100¢ $125 225d
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 31? BUY Up 99¢ $460 235d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $406 235d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 245d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October BUY No 100¢ $152 261d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $50 275d
$YZY listed on Coinbase or Binance by September 30? BUY No 99¢ $150 275d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.83 · official $364.83 (match) · 100 history records