Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30cf…cf8e crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38,537 (-40%) realized −$36,706 · open −$1,831
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 41L
Whale WR19%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,531per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$39,003
world 11% +$2,126
other 11% −$1,831
sports 3% −$1,945
tech 0% +$153
politics 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 13 +5.9% -4.2% 38% 38% -84.0%
all 62 -2.3% -11.6% 34% 27% -50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 27% -50.3%
10% -20.1% 26% -55.1%
15% -27.8% 24% -59.4%
20% -34.9% 21% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 19% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +21% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$913 vs −$1,413 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$8,166
Realized−$36,706
Unrealized−$1,831
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)19%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,531
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9,997 $8,166 −$1,831 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 29 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 01 $104 +$152 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 30 $105 +$227 +216%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $5,005 −$4,795 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 30 $210 +$900 +429%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 30 $439 −$439 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 30 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 30 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 30 $2,987 −$2,987 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 30 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25? Apr 30 $8,940 −$8,940 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 25 $1,000 +$384 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 25 $1,000 +$479 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 10 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 9? Mar 10 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 10 $533 −$533 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 4? Mar 10 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 8? Mar 10 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 8? Mar 10 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $11,000 −$11,000 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 7? Mar 10 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $10,000 +$5,200 +52%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 07 $10,000 +$2,658 +27%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $175? Mar 07 $28 +$2 +8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $155? Mar 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $165? Mar 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $170? Mar 07 $100 +$11 +11%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $180? Mar 07 $100 +$133 +133%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Dino Prizmic Mar 04 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 03 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 03 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 03 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 03 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 03 $2,000 +$2,842 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 03 $200 +$1,094 +547%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 03 $700 −$267 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 03 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 03 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 03 $1,000 +$1,288 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 03 $136 +$1,621 +1191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 03 $500 +$878 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 03 $100 +$173 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 03 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 03 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 03 $72 −$72 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,161 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3,448 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,572 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4,117 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $68 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $39 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1? BUY No 39¢ $5,005 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $46 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $60 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $104 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $44 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $781 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $219 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $262 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $738 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $17 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $983 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25? BUY No 20¢ $1,000 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25? BUY No 19¢ $1,000 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25? BUY No 18¢ $1,000 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25? BUY No 22¢ $1,000 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25? BUY No 42¢ $4,940 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $87 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $272 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $479 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $149 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $924 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,165.70 · official $8,165.70 (match) · 185 history records