Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
30 0x30ce…a3f6 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$39 (+16%) realized +$53 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$52
other 19% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +14.3% +3.4% 50% 50% +9.2%
≤30d 11 +32.4% +19.8% 64% 64% +17.2%
≤90d 11 +32.4% +19.8% 64% 64% +17.2%
all 11 +32.4% +19.8% 64% 64% +17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.8% 64% +17.2%
10% +8.3% 64% +6.0%
15% -2.2% 64% -4.3%
20% -11.8% 64% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage21d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $29 $18 −$11 (-37%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $23 +$19 +82%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $18 −$18 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$37 +245%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $10 +$9 +88%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $10 +$9 +89%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $4 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $18 4h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $23 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams t BUY 16¢ $17 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $23 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $17 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 7d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $19 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 19d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $19 19d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $10 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 100¢ $7 21d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $4 21d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.95 · official $29.95 (match) · 30 history records