Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30ce…3ea4 crypto 653 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ bot/MM pace (472 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$183 (+1%) realized +$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%395W / 258L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day471.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (472 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 653 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 653 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 653 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 0% -9.4%
all 653 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover471.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses395 / 258
Open positions0
Markets (closed)653 / 653
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day471.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 653 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $13 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records