Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30cd…4cb6 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%9W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$8
other 28% $0
politics 3% +$2
crypto 3% −$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 18 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.7%
all 31 +1.4% -8.3% 29% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 3% -10.5%
10% -17.0% 3% -19.1%
15% -25.1% 3% -26.9%
20% -32.4% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage431d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 51¢ 51¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $87 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $60 −$4 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $64 −$3 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $62 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 24 $19 −$2 -12%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Apr 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $18 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 14 $3 +$2 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $31 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $31 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $27 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $17 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $12 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $12 34h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $23 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $22 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $10 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $18 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $13 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $27 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $29 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.05 · official $28.05 (match) · 96 history records