Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30cb…63b2
other · 62 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$9 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$53
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)49 / 62
History coverage149d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 13 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+107%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 41¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Yes 10¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 57¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Yes 19¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1 $0 +37%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 05 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +79%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 07 $1 +$4 +367%
Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Super Bowl? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
GPT ads by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 01 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Mar 08 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Mar 08 $9 −$8 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 20 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 19 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 18 $1 $0 +42%
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -90%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 10 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 10 $5 +$2 +45%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Feb 10 $3 +$3 +86%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29? Jan 29 $10 +$10 +104%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 21 $2 −$1 -66%
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025? Jan 21 $1 $0 -33%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 21 $5 +$1 +28%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$11
politics 13% −$1
crypto 12% +$4
world 9% −$3
tech 8% −$14
finance 5% +$10
sports 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 43m
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 72¢ $20 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $0 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $2 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $2 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $1 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 41¢ $1 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 9h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 75¢ $1 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 68¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 33h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 4d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 38d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 38d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 38d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 38d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 48d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 48d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 33% +18.5%
≤30d 7 -29.1% -35.9% 43% 29% +5.8%
≤90d 27 -35.5% -41.6% 33% 22% -25.0%
all 49 -10.1% -18.6% 49% 41% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 41% -6.5%
10% -26.4% 37% -15.4%
15% -33.5% 33% -23.6%
20% -40.1% 24% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.55 · official $52.79 (match) · 117 history records