Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30ca…3471
world · 89 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses31 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage329d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 0 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $153 −$7 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $52 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $49 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $84 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $80 +$3 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $78 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $39 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $153 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $37 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $44 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $1 $0 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% −$5
other 24% $0
politics 19% −$1
sports 6% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 5h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 5h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $12 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $17 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 76 -0.0% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 89 -0.2% -9.7% 35% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.00 (match) · 375 history records