Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x30c6…4184 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$110 (-15%) realized −$104 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$203
crypto 16% +$3
sports 5% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.1% -22.3% 33% 33% -4.0%
≤30d 9 -14.1% -22.3% 33% 33% -4.0%
≤90d 9 -14.1% -22.3% 33% 33% -4.0%
all 12 -15.4% -23.5% 33% 33% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 33% -28.4%
10% -30.8% 33% -35.3%
15% -37.5% 33% -41.5%
20% -43.6% 33% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$38 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage139d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-5%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $117 −$110 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 +$84 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$30 +56%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 29? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 31? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 31 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 26-1? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +155%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $213 −$122 -57%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jan 31 $37 −$27 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $22 +$16 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.46 · official $169.46 (match) · 26 history records