Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30c2…e2d9 other 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$608 (-4%) realized −$630 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate79%106W / 29L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$889
7 days−$857
14 days−$857
30 days−$857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$33
other 38% −$418
world 12% −$116
weather 4% −$110
tech 3% +$22
politics 2% +$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -37.3% -43.3% 29% 5% -50.8%
≤30d 21 -37.3% -43.3% 29% 5% -50.8%
≤90d 30 -31.3% -37.9% 43% 7% -41.5%
all 135 -8.0% -16.8% 79% 7% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 7% -12.8%
10% -24.7% 1% -21.1%
15% -32.0% 0% -28.8%
20% -38.7% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$39 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized−$630
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses106 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)135 / 147
History coverage130d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 79¢ 100¢ $105 $132 +$27 (+26%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Haiti? No 98¢ 98¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 40¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 97¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 67¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+48%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 92¢ 100¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? No 95¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 73¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5 Corners Over 52¢ 18¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-64%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $61 −$3 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $65 −$1 -2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $302 −$302 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 19 $20 $0 -2%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 19 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$16 +5%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16? Apr 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on February 25? Apr 06 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on February 25? Apr 06 $17 +$3 +19%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by Februa Apr 06 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Hallow: Prayer & Meditation be #2 Free App in the US Apple App St Apr 06 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the round of 16? Apr 06 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Real Madrid advance to the round of 16? Apr 06 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or higher on February 25 Apr 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 25? Apr 06 $217 +$3 +2%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 70 and 80 minutes Feb 25 $4 $0 +3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez applaud during Trump's State of the Unio Feb 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during t Feb 25 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend the 2026 State of the Union addre Feb 25 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Ilhan Omar attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Trump say "Iran" during the State of the Union address? Feb 25 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be less than 60 minutes long? Feb 25 $174 +$1 +0%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 60 and 70 minutes Feb 25 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the winner of Beast Games: Season 2 be Strong or Smart? Feb 25 $369 +$13 +3%
Will Trump say "Europe" or "European" during the State of the Union ad Feb 25 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Brett M. Kavanaugh attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $54 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27? Feb 24 $79 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on February 24? Feb 24 $138 +$1 +1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen advance to the round of 16? Feb 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 23 be between 2,4 Feb 24 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 23 be less than 2 Feb 24 $46 +$6 +14%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 23 be between 2,6 Feb 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by Februa Feb 24 $104 +$3 +3%
Will John G. Roberts attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 98¢ $60 16m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 57¢ $58 17m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 58¢ $61 18m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $64 18m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1 53m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $20 57m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $21 59m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $4 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $5 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $30 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $49 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $35 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $8 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 80¢ $20 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 78¢ $20 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 76¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $98 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $8 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 1h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $99 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $7 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $65 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL No 86¢ $20 1h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta SELL Yes 86¢ $53 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.10 · official $384.10 (match) · 460 history records