Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30c2…85f2 sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$574 (-8%) realized −$573 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate55%74W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$456
crypto 29% −$28
other 19% −$82
economics 5% +$9
finance 4% −$22
tech 3% $0
politics 2% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 12 -1.6% -11.0% 67% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 83 -26.1% -33.1% 39% 2% -30.3%
all 135 -1.2% -10.6% 55% 23% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 23% -17.3%
10% -19.2% 19% -25.2%
15% -27.0% 19% -32.4%
20% -34.1% 16% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$573
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses74 / 61
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage490d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 64¢ 64¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 25 $188 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 18 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 18 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 26 $63 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 26 $77 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 26 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 26 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 26 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 26 $28 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 26 $34 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 26 $38 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 26 $38 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 14 $40 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 14 $80 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 14 $60 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 11 2026? May 14 $64 −$8 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026? May 14 $19 −$6 -33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 14 $68 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 13 $40 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 13 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 13 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 13 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 13 $42 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 13 $15 −$6 -38%
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $165 +$5 +3%
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $136 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? May 08 $29 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 40m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 64¢ $129 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 94¢ $188 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $32 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $32 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $33 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $17 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $34 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.06 · official $160.06 (match) · 512 history records