Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30bc…c428 world 355 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$18,422 (-33%) realized −$13,531 · open −$4,891
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate58%122W / 87L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day105.2pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$18,102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$25
world 31% −$4,572
politics 19% +$802
sports 9% −$2,791
other 7% +$496
finance 1% −$22
tech 1% +$59
economics 0% +$4
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +20.1% +8.7% 60% 53% +17.3%
≤30d 209 +35.3% +22.4% 58% 46% -12.8%
≤90d 209 +35.3% +22.4% 58% 46% -12.8%
all 209 +35.3% +22.4% 58% 46% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.4% 46% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here +10.7% 37% -21.2%
15% +0.0% 30% -28.8%
20% -9.8% 26% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +55% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$134 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$18,102
Realized−$13,531
Unrealized−$4,891
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses122 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions198
Markets (closed)209 / 355
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$157
Trades / day105.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 198 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $3,066 $3,780 +$713 (+23%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $2,044 $2,355 +$311 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $791 $951 +$160 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 31¢ 94¢ $253 $763 +$510 (+201%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 73¢ 10¢ $5,279 $721 −$4,558 (-86%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $569 $580 +$11 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 96¢ $172 $370 +$198 (+115%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 100¢ $108 $310 +$201 (+186%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $285 $286 +$1 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $254 $268 +$14 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $201 $239 +$38 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 64¢ $171 $228 +$57 (+33%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $184 $227 +$42 (+23%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $222 $222 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 95¢ $186 $211 +$25 (+13%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 70¢ 84¢ $175 $209 +$34 (+19%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $191 $199 +$8 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 84¢ 94¢ $139 $156 +$17 (+12%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $156 $156 −$1 (-0%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 81¢ $116 $150 +$34 (+30%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 86¢ $128 $146 +$18 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $127 $145 +$17 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $133 $145 +$12 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 67¢ 100¢ $87 $129 +$42 (+48%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $108 $127 +$18 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +18%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $128 +$18 +14%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $22 +$78 +344%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $32 +$8 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $6 +$34 +515%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $24 +$6 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $31 +$23 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $164 +$104 +64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $56 +$37 +66%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $31 +$146 +466%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $23 +$13 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $404 −$159 -39%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +276%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 −$31 -64%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $40 −$10 -26%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 +$5 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $55 +$34 +62%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $97 +$73 +75%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $45 −$20 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $28 −$26 -92%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $110 +$147 +134%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $241 −$238 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $189 +$79 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $109 +$153 +140%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $139 +$218 +157%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $113 −$64 -57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $7 −$6 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $286 −$7 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 10 $175 +$142 +81%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $88 +$46 +52%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $120 +$49 +41%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 −$8 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 80¢ $8 11m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 11m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 23m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $111 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $79 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $2 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 85¢ $8 7h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 9h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 9h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 9h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 9h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $19 9h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $31 9h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $61 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,102.13 · official $18,109.62 (match) · 3500 history records