Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30bc…6031 sports 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%23W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$2
politics 23% −$3
other 21% −$4
world 7% −$1
economics 7% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
culture 5% −$2
tech 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -10.0%
all 188 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses23 / 165
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage175d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $143 −$2 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $99 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $38 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 20 $74 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 16 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $77 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $77 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 08 $147 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 06 $130 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $120 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $119 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $33 1h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $33 9h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 8d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 8d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $25 16d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $28 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $28 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL No 98¢ $36 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 98¢ $36 42d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 93¢ $27 100d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 94¢ $27 100d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $32 100d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 97¢ $32 100d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $27 100d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $27 100d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $38 100d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $38 101d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $40 101d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $40 101d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $35 101d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $35 101d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 101d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 101d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $32 101d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $32 101d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $33 101d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $33 102d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 102d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $37 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 733 history records