Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
30 0x30b9…a775 politics 764 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$874 (+1%) realized +$857 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%724W / 26L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$847now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$24
14 days+$43
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$753
world 10% +$79
finance 8% +$163
economics 4% +$71
crypto 3% +$49
other 3% +$46
sports 3% +$38
tech 2% +$33
culture 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.9% -6.0% 93% 7% -7.3%
≤30d 86 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 320 -1.1% -10.5% 95% 1% -11.0%
all 750 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$63 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$847
Realized+$857
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses724 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)750 / 764
History coverage165d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 750 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $155 $155 +$0 (+0%)
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? No 92¢ 99¢ $111 $119 +$8 (+7%)
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? No 98¢ 100¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? No 97¢ 100¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+2%)
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? No 99¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Warsh say "Open-Minded" during June Press Conference? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? No 93¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Qatari" during G7 events? Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Trade" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Soleimani" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Trump say "Pakistan" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "Nine Wars" or "Ninth War" during meeting with French P Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Eighth War" during meeting with French Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during meeting with French Presid Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Zelensky" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $164 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during meeting with French Presi Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Oracle say "China" during earnings call? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Oracle say "TikTok" during earnings call? Jun 11 $135 +$2 +2%
Will Oracle say "Temu" during earnings call? Jun 11 $154 +$11 +7%
Will Tim Cook say "Siri" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will Craig Federighi say "Siri" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on Ju Jun 08 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Tim Cook say "Developer" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June Jun 08 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Tim Cook say "Personal" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Craig Federighi say "Tool" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on Ju Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Tim Cook say "Powerful" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June Jun 08 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $244 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $57 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Iowa" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $319 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Cocaine" in June? Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in June? Jun 05 $279 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Swing State" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during co Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Plant" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Russia" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Miner" 3+ times during coal announcement? Jun 04 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Best of Trump" in June? Jun 04 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Dr. Oz say "Stock" or "Market" during the press briefing? Jun 03 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Dr. Oz say "Supreme Court" during the press briefing? Jun 03 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Dr. Oz say "Department of War" during the press briefing? Jun 03 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Dr. Oz say "Nuclear" during the press briefing? Jun 03 $148 +$7 +5%
Will Dr. Oz say "Pink" during the press briefing? Jun 02 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Dr. Oz say "Everyone" or "Everybody" during the press briefing? Jun 02 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Dr. Oz say "Medicare" or "Medicaid" during the press briefing? Jun 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Dr. Oz say "Go ahead" 3+ times during the press briefing? Jun 02 $128 +$2 +2%
Will Dr. Oz say "TrumpRx" or "TrumpRx.gov" during the press briefing? Jun 02 $148 +$1 +1%
Will Dell say "AMD" during earnings call? May 29 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Dell say "GPU" or "CPU" during earnings call? May 29 $50 $0 +1%
Will Dell say "Pope" during earnings call? May 29 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Dell say "Meta" during earnings call? May 29 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Dell say "Agentic" during earnings call? May 29 $117 +$3 +2%
Will Dell say "Gaming" or "Game" during earnings call? May 29 $118 +$2 +2%
Will Dell say "Quarter" 7+ times during earnings call? May 29 $199 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 99¢ $25 17m
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 17m
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 99¢ $1 32m
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? BUY No 99¢ $4 43m
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 99¢ $27 46m
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 100¢ $98 46m
Will Warsh say "Open-Minded" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 55m
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? BUY No 98¢ $94 59m
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? BUY No 97¢ $20 59m
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? BUY No 98¢ $98 59m
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? BUY No 97¢ $65 59m
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? BUY No 91¢ $91 59m
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 93¢ $6 1h
Will Warsh say "Open-Minded" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Con BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 1h
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 1h
Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Qatari" during G7 events? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 33h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during meeting with French President? BUY Yes 99¢ $124 2d
Will Trump say "Zelensky" during meeting with French President? BUY Yes 99¢ $142 2d
Will Trump say "Pakistan" during meeting with French President? BUY No 90¢ $8 2d
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Eighth War" during meeting with French BUY No 91¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $847.27 · official $847.27 (match) · 2621 history records