Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30b8…cad4 politics 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,034 (+1%) realized +$1,033 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,583per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$21
14 days−$100
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,345
politics 42% −$104
sports 4% −$249
culture 2% −$6
economics 2% −$4
world 1% −$3
tech 1% +$5
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 50 -7.3% -16.1% 8% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 117 -5.5% -14.5% 6% 4% -9.0%
all 117 -5.5% -14.5% 6% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 4% -9.0%
10% -22.7% 4% -17.8%
15% -30.2% 4% -25.7%
20% -37.0% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,895) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$7 · ×35.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,256
Realized+$1,033
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1,583
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $645 $645 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $610 $611 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,050 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $3,771 −$5 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,651 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,626 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,627 −$4 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 14 $252 +$5 +2%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,366 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,025 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $84 +$79 +93%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $5,153 −$6 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $628 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,062 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,895 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,193 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,186 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $4,145 −$6 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,784 −$4 -0%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,919 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $2,741 −$3 -0%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $67 +$35 +52%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,789 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 20 $45 +$42 +93%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 20 $1,520 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,484 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $3,136 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,611 −$2 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2,776 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $646 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $656 16h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $656 19h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $749 22h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $750 22h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $818 22h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $819 26h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $834 42h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $835 44h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $840 46h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $842 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $526 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $526 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $616 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $616 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $633 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $252 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $634 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $612 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $613 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $778 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $779 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $745 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $746 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $693 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $694 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $807 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $809 8d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $713 9d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $714 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,256.04 · official $1,256.04 (match) · 386 history records