Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30b7…c587 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$256 (-30%) realized −$254 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%9W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$144
other 29% −$31
sports 12% −$13
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -50.0% -54.7% 11% 11% -8.6%
≤30d 9 -50.0% -54.7% 11% 11% -8.6%
≤90d 42 -39.6% -45.4% 21% 19% -30.2%
all 42 -39.6% -45.4% 21% 19% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 19% -30.2%
10% -50.6% 17% -36.9%
15% -55.4% 14% -43.0%
20% -59.8% 12% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$12 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$254
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage59d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 +$85 +211%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$19 -47%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$25 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $49 −$30 -62%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 23 $6 −$5 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Mustache" in April? Apr 23 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 23 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 23 $37 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 23 $20 +$25 +125%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $50 −$28 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 23 $15 −$13 -89%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 18 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 18 $42 −$12 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 18 $45 −$36 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 18 $20 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 18 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 18 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 18 $18 +$42 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 17 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 17 $15 +$32 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 10m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $122 12m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 19m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $43 20m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 41m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 51m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 2d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 47d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 47d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 47d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 52d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.09 · official $48.09 (match) · 114 history records