Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30b5…c37a crypto 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 409d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$407 (-4%) realized −$407 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%95W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$327
14 days−$327
30 days−$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$88
other 10% −$306
sports 5% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -20.9% -28.4% 42% 35% -33.7%
≤30d 51 -18.7% -26.5% 41% 35% -29.4%
≤90d 120 -17.6% -25.4% 48% 29% -26.0%
all 189 -6.3% -15.3% 50% 35% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 35% -13.6%
10% -23.4% 28% -21.9%
15% -30.8% 20% -29.4%
20% -37.6% 14% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

409d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$407
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses95 / 94
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage409d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $176 −$34 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $66 −$56 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$20 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$15 +116%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $143 −$130 -91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 −$83 -41%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $89 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$54 +175%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $66 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$14 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $26 −$20 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 31 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 31 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 31 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 31 $41 +$25 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Japan vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score May 31 $102 −$37 -37%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $23 +$20 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $142 42m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $176 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 455 history records