Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
30 0x30b3…d57c crypto 347 markets active 4d ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+4%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%173W / 174L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$34
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$18
world 30% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 -13.2% -21.5% 46% 45% -16.7%
≤30d 346 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 49% -8.9%
≤90d 346 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 49% -8.9%
all 347 -4.0% -13.2% 50% 49% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 49% -6.9%
10% -21.5% 47% -15.8%
15% -29.1% 44% -24.0%
20% -36.0% 39% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses173 / 174
Open positions0
Markets (closed)347 / 347
History coverage586d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 347 Trades
no open positions (164 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 580 history records