Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30b3…4c8c
crypto · 323 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$91 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$86 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses164 / 158
Open positions1
Markets (closed)322 / 323
Avg bet$9
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 322 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$69
14 days−$119
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$27 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -12.8% -21.1% 52% 47% -20.3%
≤30d 221 -3.0% -12.2% 51% 40% -14.2%
≤90d 322 -1.7% -11.0% 51% 37% -12.2%
all 322 -1.7% -11.0% 51% 37% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 37% -12.2%
10% -19.6% 27% -20.6%
15% -27.3% 17% -28.2%
20% -34.5% 11% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $13.22 · 802 history records