Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:43:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30b2…53d5 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,035 (+1%) realized +$1,031 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%30W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1,038per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$181
politics 30% −$46
sports 14% +$1,253
economics 4% −$5
world 2% +$16
crypto 2% −$17
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 46 +3.2% -6.6% 11% 2% -8.5%
all 118 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 11% -8.8%
10% -16.8% 11% -17.5%
15% -24.9% 8% -25.5%
20% -32.2% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,440) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$6 · ×8.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$903
Realized+$1,031
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses30 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,038
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $899 $903 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $255 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $236 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $286 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $263 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,905 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,962 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4,195 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,561 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,616 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $7,094 −$7 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,071 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $867 +$1 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,113 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,028 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,350 −$5 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,833 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,301 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $976 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,516 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $2,815 −$4 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 02 $901 +$2 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,248 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,206 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $7,271 −$7 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $2,268 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $2,356 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,567 −$2 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 07 $30 $0 +1%
Stars vs. Flyers Mar 30 $679 +$1,019 +150%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-25? Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-08? Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-2.5) Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 36m
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $235 24h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $236 27h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $250 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $251 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $286 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $286 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $262 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $263 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $269 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $269 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $341 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $341 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $899 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,031 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,595 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,597 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,518 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,520 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,573 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,573 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,558 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,561 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,596 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,599 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,613 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,616 21d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,674 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $903.05 · official $903.05 (match) · 425 history records