Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30b2…3493
crypto · 12 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$3 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage115d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 2 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+38%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% +$4
crypto 46% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.0% -9.5% 80% 40% -12.6%
≤30d 10 -0.0% -9.5% 80% 40% -12.6%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.5% 80% 40% -12.6%
all 10 -0.0% -9.5% 80% 40% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 40% -12.6%
10% -18.2% 30% -21.0%
15% -26.1% 30% -28.6%
20% -33.3% 10% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.85 · official $18.85 (match) · 86 history records