Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x30b1…e548 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$225 (-5%) realized −$193 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$263
sports 4% +$22
other 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 33% -1.1%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.4% 31% 31% -2.9%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.4% 31% 31% -2.9%
all 26 +16.9% +5.7% 50% 23% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 23% -14.0%
10% -4.4% 23% -22.2%
15% -13.6% 23% -29.7%
20% -22.1% 23% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$31 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$193
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage340d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Curaçao 38¢ 38¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 41¢ 16¢ $53 $21 −$32 (-60%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $40 +$75 +188%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 16? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $1 +$2 +196%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $9 +$14 +146%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $3 +$14 +456%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $945 −$309 -33%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 27 $232 +$4 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Oct 07 $144 +$4 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August? Aug 12 $459 +$5 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in August? Aug 09 $447 +$12 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? Aug 08 $543 +$24 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3500 and $3600 on August 1? Aug 01 $428 +$9 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Aug 01 $777 +$15 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Jul 30 $440 −$14 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 38¢ $45 56m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $48 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $115 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $6 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $40 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 17h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 40¢ $9 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $1 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 29h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 29h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $24 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 35¢ $5 7d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $26 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 21d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 66d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes $4 188d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $49 218d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.27 · official $69.27 · 97 history records