Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30b1…22ab other 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 659d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$80 (+3%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%15W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$99
14 days−$220
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$595
sports 19% −$350
economics 3% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +17.6% +6.4% 26% 26% -13.3%
≤30d 57 +11.1% +0.5% 25% 25% -17.4%
≤90d 57 +11.1% +0.5% 25% 25% -17.4%
all 70 -6.4% -15.3% 21% 21% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 21% -5.2%
10% -23.4% 21% -14.3%
15% -30.8% 20% -22.6%
20% -37.6% 20% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -81% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$30 · ×3.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

659d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses15 / 55
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage659d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $113 +$188 +167%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$59 +83%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$115 +1116%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$142 +140%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 +$40 +197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$26 +127%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$32 +31%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 +$22 +73%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 −$158 -99%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$115 +1116%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$158 +52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$98 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$133 +1290%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $121 −$114 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $301 19m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 7¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $20 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $0 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 24¢ $20 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $71 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $133 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 20¢ $53 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records