Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30af…52b5 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$75 (-22%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -24.3% -31.5% 33% 25% -32.1%
≤30d 24 -24.3% -31.5% 33% 25% -32.1%
≤90d 24 -24.3% -31.5% 33% 25% -32.1%
all 24 -24.3% -31.5% 33% 25% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.5% 25% -32.1%
10% ← realistic here -38.1% 12% -38.6%
15% -44.0% 12% -44.5%
20% -49.5% 12% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$9 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$6 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $13 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $54 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records