Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30ad…2548 crypto 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$120 (-3%) realized −$220 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%63W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$72
sports 5% +$23
other 2% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.4% -15.4% 57% 48% -3.4%
≤30d 24 -10.3% -18.9% 54% 46% -3.9%
≤90d 121 -9.5% -18.1% 52% 45% -12.8%
all 121 -9.5% -18.1% 52% 45% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 45% -12.8%
10% -26.0% 29% -21.1%
15% -33.1% 18% -28.8%
20% -39.7% 11% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$220
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses63 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage81d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 10¢ 50¢ $25 $125 +$100 (+401%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $108 −$64 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $128 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$23 +88%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $111 +$22 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$32 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $126 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$12 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$10 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 02 $20 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 02 $57 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 01 $10 −$7 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 01 $41 +$24 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 01 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 01 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 01 $42 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 01 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 01 $128 −$24 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 01 $58 −$22 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 01 $52 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 01 $42 +$28 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 01 $31 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 28 $60 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 28 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 27 $50 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 27 $50 −$30 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 27 $50 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 27 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $43 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $119 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $24 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $32 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $49 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 28m
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? SELL No 92¢ $133 34m
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No 76¢ $111 55m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 69¢ $83 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $11 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $8 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.30 · official $125.30 (match) · 347 history records