Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30ac…9b5c
crypto · 653 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$668 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,384 · open −$98
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$249
Realized−$1,384
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses311 / 439
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions8
Markets (closed)750 / 653
History coverage67d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 8 History 750 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,182
7 days−$1,156
14 days−$1,117
30 days−$1,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 56¢ 86¢ $98 $151 +$53 (+53%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Down 74¢ 100¢ $33 $45 +$12 (+35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $47 $19 −$28 (-60%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 36¢ 20¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 76¢ 2¢ $59 $1 −$58 (-98%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Up 1¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+170%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos UC Riverside Highlanders 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Royal Challengers Bangalore 26¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho Vandals Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings Chennai Super Kings 6¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho Vandals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Houston Cougars Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Pelicans Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Jun 14 $173 −$173 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gen.G win the LCK Cup 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. California-San Diego Tritons Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Play Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs South Africa Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-03-08? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 26? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Tarleton State Texans vs. Utah Valley Wolverines Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Northeastern Huskies vs. William & Mary Tribe Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 61% −$24
crypto 35% −$131
other 2% −$78
world 2% −$43
politics 0% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 26¢ $2 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 42¢ $5 42m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $5 47m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 1¢ $0 52m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 1¢ $0 52m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 1¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 73¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 77¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 7¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 25¢ $8 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 24¢ $17 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 13¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 17¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 28¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 31¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $9 22h
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 25¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 45¢ $9 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 35¢ $7 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 40¢ $8 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -78.0% -80.1% 9% 8% -59.7%
≤30d 582 -27.8% -34.7% 44% 40% -22.5%
≤90d 750 -24.8% -32.0% 41% 39% -21.1%
all 750 -24.8% -32.0% 41% 39% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.0% 39% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -38.5% 32% -28.6%
15% -44.4% 24% -35.5%
20% -49.9% 17% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.47 · official $249.47 (match) · 3500 history records