Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30ab…9f33 crypto 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-4%) realized −$42 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%101W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$53
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$56
other 3% −$3
sports 3% +$27
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -2.8% -12.1% 68% 58% -7.0%
≤30d 155 -6.5% -15.4% 65% 55% -8.7%
≤90d 155 -6.5% -15.4% 65% 55% -8.7%
all 155 -6.5% -15.4% 65% 55% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 55% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 38% -17.4%
15% -30.9% 28% -25.4%
20% -37.7% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses101 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 157
History coverage8d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $66 +$51 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 433 history records