Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30aa…25f4
other · 56 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$61 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$58 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage197d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 1 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-07? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-14? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Torino FC win on 2025-12-27? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 15? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-22? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-12-03? No 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Brentford win on 2025-12-06? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Fulham FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Under 64¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC win on 2025-12-14? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Uganda vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-20? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$18 -68%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-12? Jan 16 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-06? Jan 07 $30 +$23 +75%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-06? Jan 07 $50 +$39 +79%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jan 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jan 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jan 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5) Jan 02 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Jan 01 $30 +$73 +245%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Jan 01 $50 +$12 +25%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Jan 01 $100 +$59 +59%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Dec 31 $20 +$71 +354%
Will Uganda vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Dec 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? Dec 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Dec 28 $50 +$111 +223%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $50 +$117 +233%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-26? Dec 27 $60 +$90 +150%
Will Torino FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Dec 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Dec 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 20 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $59 +$105 +178%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 18? Dec 20 $13 +$29 +233%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $241 −$148 -61%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $50 +$33 +67%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $50 +$93 +186%
US Lecce vs. Pisa SC: Both Teams to Score Dec 13 $20 +$15 +75%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2025-12-12? Dec 13 $50 +$111 +222%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Dec 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $10 −$10 -100%
FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to Score Dec 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Manchester United vs. West Ham: Both Teams to Score Dec 05 $25 +$19 +75%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? Dec 04 $26 +$27 +104%
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Dec 03 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% +$85
sports 30% +$109
crypto 13% −$136
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 31h
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-12? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 153d
Will Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 153d
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $20 153d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 157d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 158d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 158d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-06? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 159d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-06? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 159d
Will West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 159d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $35 163d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 163d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 163d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-03? BUY Yes 34¢ $30 163d
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5) BUY Tottenham Hotspur FC 82¢ $50 164d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 164d
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) BUY Fulham FC 80¢ $50 164d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) BUY Leeds United FC 63¢ $100 164d
Will Uganda vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 166d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -35.6% -41.7% 0% 0% -45.1%
≤30d 2 -35.6% -41.7% 0% 0% -45.1%
≤90d 2 -35.6% -41.7% 0% 0% -45.1%
all 55 +2.9% -6.9% 44% 42% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 42% -4.3%
10% -15.8% 40% -13.4%
15% -23.9% 36% -21.8%
20% -31.4% 35% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.11 · official $39.11 (match) · 103 history records