Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x30a6…64b7 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$926 (-6%) realized −$926 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,452
7 days−$1,354
14 days−$535
30 days−$1,332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$107
sports 11% −$776
world 10% −$666
crypto 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.4% -27.1% 50% 50% -28.6%
≤30d 22 -5.9% -14.9% 45% 41% -17.1%
≤90d 30 -17.7% -25.6% 37% 30% -17.3%
all 30 -17.7% -25.6% 37% 30% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 30% -17.3%
10% -32.7% 17% -25.2%
15% -39.2% 13% -32.5%
20% -45.2% 3% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$210 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$926
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage32d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $984 −$984 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $1,440 −$658 -46%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $998 +$189 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,002 −$768 -77%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $998 +$454 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $998 +$412 +41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $998 +$276 +28%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,825 +$703 +38%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $497 −$156 -31%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $926 −$198 -21%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $913 +$78 +8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $824 +$118 +14%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,544 −$13 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $950 −$950 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $784 +$166 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $15 +$2 +13%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 02 $16 −$5 -29%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $37 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $19 −$2 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $49 −$2 -4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $12 +$8 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $10 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 25 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $174 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $205 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $984 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,187 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $998 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $608 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $500 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $500 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $235 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 20¢ $235 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,002 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,453 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $998 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,411 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $998 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,274 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $998 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,248 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $812 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,279 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $340 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $728 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $926 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $991 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $913 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $941 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $824 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records