Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30a4…5598 sports 11 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-52%) realized −$42 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$41
sports 37% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-53.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -48.2% -53.2% 14% 14% -72.1%
≤30d 7 -48.2% -53.2% 14% 14% -72.1%
≤90d 7 -48.2% -53.2% 14% 14% -72.1%
all 7 -48.2% -53.2% 14% 14% -72.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.2% 14% -72.1%
10% -57.6% 14% -74.8%
15% -61.7% 14% -77.2%
20% -65.5% 14% -79.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.72 · official $18.72 (match) · 12 history records