Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30a2…deac sports 769 markets active 0h ago coverage 503d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$590 (+1%) realized +$588 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate79%606W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$97
14 days+$268
30 days+$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$827
weather 14% −$485
other 2% +$8
crypto 1% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -1.4% -10.8% 83% 44% -11.3%
≤30d 322 +0.7% -8.9% 80% 46% -7.1%
≤90d 721 -0.2% -9.7% 80% 45% -8.4%
all 768 -1.0% -10.4% 79% 44% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -9.1%
10% -19.0% 23% -17.8%
15% -26.8% 13% -25.7%
20% -34.0% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$48 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

503d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$588
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses606 / 162
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions1
Markets (closed)768 / 769
History coverage503d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 768 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ 42¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $62 +$6 +10%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $57 +$5 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$9 +17%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $92 +$17 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $37 +$5 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $75 +$12 +16%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $35 +$7 +21%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $57 +$11 +19%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $110 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $54 +$6 +11%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $95 +$4 +4%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $92 +$4 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $86 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $45 +$7 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $47 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $73 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $67 +$6 +9%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 +$2 +6%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $74 +$66 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$6 +15%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $47 +$4 +8%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $71 −$65 -92%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $65 +$6 +8%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$14 +27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $69 +$8 +12%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $38 +$12 +30%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $103 +$17 +16%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $58 +$33 +57%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 14 $23 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $14 +$6 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $67 −$41 -62%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $112 +$4 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $116 −$116 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $144 +$6 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $139 +$9 +6%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $131 +$8 +6%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $89 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $115 +$6 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $98 +$17 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $41 15m
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 100¢ $68 56m
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 91¢ $62 1h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) SELL Jordan 99¢ $62 1h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Jordan 91¢ $57 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $59 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $51 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $109 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 85¢ $42 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $42 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 83¢ $50 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $37 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $87 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $32 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $43 6h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Iraq 100¢ $42 6h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 82¢ $35 9h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $68 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 84¢ $28 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 84¢ $29 13h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $117 15h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 94¢ $110 17h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $59 19h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 89¢ $22 19h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 89¢ $31 19h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 99¢ $56 19h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 96¢ $6 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 96¢ $15 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 96¢ $21 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 96¢ $13 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.50 · official $41.50 (match) · 2491 history records