Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30a1…8b76 sports 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (455 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$185 (+14%) realized +$231 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%93W / 65L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day454.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$133
other 3% +$13
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (455 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +9.2% -1.2% 59% 49% +8.6%
≤30d 158 +9.2% -1.2% 59% 49% +8.6%
≤90d 158 +9.2% -1.2% 59% 49% +8.6%
all 158 +9.2% -1.2% 59% 49% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover454.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 49% +8.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 39% -1.7%
15% -19.3% 32% -11.2%
20% -27.2% 25% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized+$231
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses93 / 65
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions65
Markets (closed)158 / 223
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day454.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Gerard Campana Lee 16¢ 100¢ $6 $37 +$31 (+530%)
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Anastasia Kulikova 23¢ 100¢ $4 $17 +$13 (+331%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Paula Badosa 54¢ 80¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+46%)
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jerome Kym 21¢ 38¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+76%)
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Frederico Ferreira Silva 59¢ 72¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+21%)
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser Valentina Ryser 73¢ 84¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Daniil Glinka 36¢ 42¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Martin Krumich 70¢ 78¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Norbert Gombos 78¢ 80¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 72¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 68¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 68¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Marin Cilic 40¢ 50¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+26%)
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Daniel Rincon 27¢ 100¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+270%)
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Julia Riera 91¢ 80¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Lucas Poullain Gilles Arnaud Bailly 71¢ 82¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Under 100¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
ITF Blois: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Clara Burel 91¢ 76¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $8 −$1 -16%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $8 −$2 -24%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $8 +$7 +92%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $8 +$12 +146%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $8 +$3 +38%
ITF Blois: Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Sofya Lansere Jun 16 $8 +$3 +41%
ITF Ystad: Camilla Zanolini vs Sarah Van Emst Jun 16 $8 −$4 -50%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $8 −$2 -29%
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet Jun 16 $8 +$1 +18%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $8 +$4 +50%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $8 +$7 +92%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $8 −$3 -43%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $20 +$15 +73%
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $8 −$3 -34%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $6 +$1 +18%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $8 +$22 +274%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy Jun 16 $8 +$6 +77%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $19 −$11 -59%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $8 +$11 +142%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $8 −$4 -50%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $8 +$5 +59%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $8 −$3 -40%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $8 +$3 +31%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $8 $0 -6%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $10 −$6 -61%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $8 −$5 -64%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $15 −$2 -12%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $8 +$27 +342%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $8 −$5 -66%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $8 −$1 -10%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $8 +$4 +46%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $8 +$7 +90%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $14 −$2 -12%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $8 +$16 +197%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $8 +$1 +7%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $8 −$3 -32%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $8 −$2 -20%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $8 +$31 +388%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 65¢ $2 3m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Martyna Kubka 34¢ $2 4m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 69¢ $2 5m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 8m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2 11m
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 69¢ $2 11m
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei BUY Martyna Kubka 34¢ $2 12m
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Ivan Ivanov 30¢ $2 12m
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 74¢ $2 12m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $2 13m
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 73¢ $2 15m
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 74¢ $2 15m
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 78¢ $2 18m
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin BUY Norbert Gombos 83¢ $2 19m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $2 20m
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 75¢ $2 21m
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 70¢ $2 22m
Figueira Da Foz: Kristina Mladenovic vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 71¢ $2 23m
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $2 23m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 57¢ $2 24m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $2 26m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $2 26m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 59¢ $2 27m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $2 27m
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 58¢ $2 28m
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 58¢ $2 28m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 40¢ $2 29m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 40¢ $2 29m
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 40¢ $2 29m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $2 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.93 · official $400.93 (match) · 860 history records