Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:54:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30a0…a458 sports 637 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,769 (+20%) realized +$5,814 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%255W / 534L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day64.6pace
Fees−$551est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$5,407
other 15% −$635
crypto 7% +$10
finance 4% −$301
tech 4% −$147
culture 0% +$37
politics 0% −$12
weather 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 318 -30.0% -36.6% 17% 16% -26.1%
≤30d 597 -8.4% -17.1% 30% 29% -1.1%
≤90d 789 -2.9% -12.1% 32% 31% -2.8%
all 789 -2.9% -12.1% 32% 31% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 31% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 29% -12.1%
15% -28.2% 26% -20.6%
20% -35.2% 22% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$19 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized+$5,814
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses255 / 534
Est. fees paid−$551
Open positions86
Markets (closed)789 / 637
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day64.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vasco Esports 55¢ 50¢ $72 $64 −$7 (-10%)
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? No 72¢ 82¢ $36 $41 +$5 (+15%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 40¢ 42¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Zuffa Boxing 8: Trinidad vs. Ancajas (Featherweight, Main) Trinidad 57¢ 69¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+21%)
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Worcestershire Rapids vs Sussex Sharks Worcestershire Rapids 40¢ 43¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Zuffa Boxing 8: Sandoval vs. Lee (Welterweight, Main) Sandoval 28¢ 42¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+48%)
Zuffa Boxing 8: Trinidad vs. Ancajas (Featherweight, Main) Ancajas 36¢ 31¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs Fake do Biru 42¢ 46¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NH-01 House seat? No 6¢ 14¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+125%)
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Durham Hampshire 41¢ 40¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 58¢ 57¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+22%)
T20 Blast, Women: Essex vs The Blaze Essex 26¢ 26¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+100%)
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027? No 32¢ 85¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+166%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 30¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+275%)
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? No 56¢ 99¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+77%)
California voter ID referendum passes? Yes 34¢ 50¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+46%)
Spread: England (-5.5) England 5¢ 6¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+183%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+72%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+59%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? No 18¢ 17¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 54¢ 98¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+82%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-45 House seat? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+110%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 412 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Gronli be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Südtirol win on 2026-04-25? Jun 27 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican pri Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Honor of Kings: Team Flash vs Saigon Phantom (BO7) - Arena of Glory Pl Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Wydad Athletic Club (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of Apri Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Chiba Jets vs. Gunma Crane Thunders Jun 27 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
X Money released by May 31, 2026? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 27 $9 −$15 -160%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by April 30? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 27 $46 −$46 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Uber # of trips above 3.6B in Q1? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Robert Strombachs Jun 27 $8 +$3 +35%
LoL: Bubliki vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 27 $58 −$58 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of May 4 2026? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-05-09? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on May 8? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on May 2? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $72 −$72 -100%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs RTT100 (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Am Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on May 2? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Mobia Medical's market cap be between $700M and $900M at market c Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l Jun 27 $0 +$38 +7710%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jun 27 $6 +$5 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 8? Jun 27 $2 +$19 +873%
Joao Fonseca vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Montpellier win? SELL No 82¢ $3 56m
Will Montpellier win? SELL No 82¢ $4 1h
Will Montpellier win? SELL No 82¢ $33 1h
Will Montpellier win? SELL No 82¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Zakharova SELL Anastasia Zakharova 14¢ $142 1h
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 72¢ $36 2h
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Worcestershire Rapids vs Sussex Sharks BUY Worcestershire Rapids 40¢ $8 3h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Durham BUY Hampshire 41¢ $7 3h
T20 Blast, Women: Essex vs The Blaze BUY Essex 26¢ $6 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 89¢ $27 5h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge SELL Just Players 50¢ $138 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 89¢ $1 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 89¢ $5 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 89¢ $8 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 89¢ $1 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 89¢ $287 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY Fake do Biru 42¢ $7 6h
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 6¢ $26 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 6¢ $19 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 7¢ $14 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 8¢ $6 7h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 51¢ $2 8h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 54¢ $49 8h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 59¢ $118 8h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 71¢ $57 8h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY Just Players 51¢ $102 9h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY Just Players 61¢ $49 10h
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Play BUY Millennium Esports 27¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY roamsfiest 12¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.57 · official $334.83 (match) · 3500 history records