Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x309a…2610 crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (526 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,459 (-6%) realized −$1,459 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%80W / 79L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day525.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,825
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (526 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 46% -20.4%
≤30d 159 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 46% -20.4%
≤90d 159 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 46% -20.4%
all 159 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 46% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover525.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 46% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 37% -28.0%
15% -33.1% 26% -34.9%
20% -39.7% 21% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$118 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses80 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 159
History coverage2d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day525.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$37 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $152 +$101 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$15 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $236 −$232 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $177 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $82 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $206 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$41 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $126 +$71 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $89 −$88 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $124 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $104 +$36 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $67 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $64 +$26 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $92 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $146 −$141 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $307 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $287 +$236 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $709 −$600 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $305 +$93 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $379 −$372 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $444 −$9 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $205 +$105 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $137 −$87 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $384 +$234 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $36 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $130 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $123 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $49 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $22 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $19 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 847 history records