Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

30 0x3099…3896 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$113 (+3%) realized +$113 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate67%16W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$142per market

Trades / day15.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-27.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-19.8%	-27.5%	67%	29%	-6.0%
≤30d	24	-19.8%	-27.5%	67%	29%	-6.0%
≤90d	24	-19.8%	-27.5%	67%	29%	-6.0%
all	24	-19.8%	-27.5%	67%	29%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.5%	29%	-6.0%
10%	-34.4%	12%	-15.0%
15%	-40.7%	12%	-23.2%
20%	-46.5%	8%	-30.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

56% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -30% → late -10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$36 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.47 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized+$113

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses16 / 8

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage4d

Avg bet$142

Trades / day15.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$306	+$30	+10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$271	+$30	+11%
France leading at halftime?	Jun 23	$200	+$8	+4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$65	+$3	+4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$100	+$6	+6%
Argentina leading at halftime?	Jun 22	$200	+$12	+6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$20	+$12	+57%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$201	+$43	+21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$35	−$34	-96%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$150	+$87	+58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$202	−$149	-74%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$285	+$12	+4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$199	+$87	+44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$80	−$80	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$260	+$10	+4%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-90%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime?	Jun 20	$241	+$22	+9%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime?	Jun 20	$10	−$9	-85%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$238	+$28	+12%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$222	+$15	+6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$199	+$24	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$50	4m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	94¢	$90	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	94¢	$100	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$15	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$261	5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	5h
France leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$208	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$68	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	96¢	$65	8h
France leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	96¢	$200	9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	94¢	$100	11h
Argentina leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$213	12h
Argentina leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	94¢	$200	12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	26h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$20	30h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$244	30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	30h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	82¢	$201	30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$35	33h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$237	33h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	66¢	$8	33h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	19¢	$53	33h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	60¢	$91	33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$298	36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	97¢	$240	38h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.71 · official $49.71 (match) · 62 history records