Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x3097…8fed crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$263 (+2%) realized +$263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -77.9% -80.0% 0% 0% -80.0%
≤30d 30 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 40% -14.5%
≤90d 30 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 40% -14.5%
all 30 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 40% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 40% -14.5%
10% -14.3% 27% -22.6%
15% -22.6% 23% -30.1%
20% -30.2% 17% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$226 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage21d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$75 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $158 −$42 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $83 +$32 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $105 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $40 +$55 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $313 +$53 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $313 +$36 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $200 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $104 +$47 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $262 −$150 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $1,156 −$367 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $936 −$200 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 07 $525 +$71 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $511 −$492 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $1,017 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $1,564 +$473 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $495 −$495 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $524 −$193 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $395 −$373 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $1,864 +$101 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $628 +$858 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $418 −$300 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $107 +$714 +670%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $105 +$181 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $420 −$420 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $311 +$413 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $21 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $56 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $59 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $42 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $30 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $74 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $95 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $40 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $113 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $47 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $156 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $63 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records