Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
30 0x3092…4aa9 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,757 (-8%) realized −$4,972 · open +$1,215
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,206per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$273est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3,475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,611
7 days−$5,077
14 days−$4,558
30 days−$4,558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$2,986
sports 38% −$885
crypto 3% +$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +38.0% +24.8% 50% 47% -19.8%
≤30d 35 +38.1% +24.9% 51% 49% -18.3%
≤90d 36 +34.2% +21.4% 50% 47% -18.6%
all 36 +34.2% +21.4% 50% 47% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.4% 47% -18.6%
10% +9.8% 31% -26.4%
15% -0.8% 25% -33.5%
20% -10.5% 14% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,937) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +87% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$638 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$3,475
Realized−$4,972
Unrealized+$1,215
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$273
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage69d
Avg bet$1,206
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Canada 65¢ 100¢ $2,260 $3,475 +$1,215 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $3,360 −$1,298 -39%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $570 −$344 -60%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $25 −$23 -95%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $51 +$112 +219%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $262 +$220 +84%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,910 −$2,886 -99%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $251 −$199 -79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,179 +$921 +18%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $749 −$509 -68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $256 −$252 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $90 +$63 +70%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,329 +$604 +18%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $608 +$3 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $767 +$565 +74%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $2,493 +$342 +14%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $260 −$256 -98%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $98 −$42 -43%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $506 +$201 +40%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $267 −$263 -99%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $1,656 +$223 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,937 +$730 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $275 +$359 +130%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,214 +$393 +32%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,159 +$262 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $257 −$193 -75%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $555 −$548 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,710 −$3,664 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,093 +$620 +20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,739 +$409 +15%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $858 −$558 -65%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $813 −$238 -29%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $575 +$239 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,252 +$519 +41%
Mexico City: Luka Pavlovic vs Rodrigo Pacheco Apr 10 $136 −$136 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 65¢ $2,284 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 43¢ $2,061 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Qatar 29¢ $226 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 70¢ $570 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) SELL Switzerland 1¢ $1 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 20¢ $25 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 94¢ $163 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 29¢ $51 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $482 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $262 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 69¢ $3,360 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $2,714 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $196 8h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 48¢ $231 8h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 25¢ $47 8h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 10¢ $21 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $6,100 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,916 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3,263 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $123 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $96 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $713 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $256 29h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $90 32h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $3,933 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3,329 44h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 60¢ $610 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 58¢ $608 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,475.43 · official $3,475.43 (match) · 80 history records