Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3090…4e3f crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$229 (-18%) realized −$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%46W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$183
sports 9% −$10
other 5% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.8% +16.6% 100% 100% +16.6%
≤30d 1 +28.8% +16.6% 100% 100% +16.6%
≤90d 54 -10.5% -19.0% 65% 52% -20.5%
all 76 -12.5% -20.8% 61% 47% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 47% -26.2%
10% -28.4% 29% -33.3%
15% -35.3% 17% -39.7%
20% -41.7% 7% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses46 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage612d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 82¢ 88¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 78¢ 70¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 17 $18 −$18 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 17 $26 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 17 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 17 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 17 $51 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 17 $45 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 22 $8 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 21 $33 −$15 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 21 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 21 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 21 $36 −$12 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 21 $28 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 21 $36 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 21 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 21 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 21 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 21 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 21 $28 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 21 $23 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 21 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 21 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 21 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 21 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 21 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 21 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 21 $6 +$4 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 21 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 21 $22 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 21 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 21 $19 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 21 $22 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 21 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 21 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 21 $23 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 21 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 21 $3 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $17 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $28 1h
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 37d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $4 37d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $41 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $15 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.49 · official $37.16 (match) · 354 history records