Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x308f…8607 other 650 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$670 (-5%) realized −$519 · open −$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate84%504W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$747now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$111
14 days−$382
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$223
sports 25% −$26
crypto 22% −$242
world 9% −$235
weather 7% −$71
politics 6% −$12
culture 2% +$28
finance 1% +$12
tech 1% +$18
economics 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -5.7% -14.7% 84% 33% -15.4%
≤30d 319 -3.9% -13.1% 86% 39% -15.2%
≤90d 595 -4.5% -13.6% 84% 44% -15.9%
all 602 -3.6% -12.8% 84% 44% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 44% -13.7%
10% -21.2% 15% -22.0%
15% -28.8% 4% -29.5%
20% -35.8% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$24 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$747
Realized−$519
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses504 / 98
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions48
Markets (closed)602 / 650
History coverage122d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 602 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? No 78¢ 100¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 25? No 81¢ 99¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? No 86¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? No 88¢ 100¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? No 72¢ 92¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+28%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 92¢ 94¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 88¢ 88¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? No 76¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 95¢ 94¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 77¢ 78¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? No 71¢ 75¢ $21 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Yes 92¢ 81¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) United States 90¢ 90¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 94¢ 94¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25? No 84¢ 100¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 +$4 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $22 +$8 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $25 +$6 +23%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? Jun 25 $12 +$4 +34%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Jun 25 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 25 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? Jun 25 $99 +$7 +7%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 +$4 +31%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $14 +$4 +29%
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 25 $28 +$9 +31%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $65 +$17 +26%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $41 +$9 +21%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $8 $0 +6%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 24 $45 +$10 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23? Jun 24 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $25 +$6 +26%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $25 +$6 +26%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 $0 +5%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -99%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $18 +$2 +11%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 23 $13 −$13 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$4 +15%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $12 +$1 +5%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $7 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $8 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 2m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 95¢ $22 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 86¢ $15 14m
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 14m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 88¢ $25 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $25 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $25 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 95¢ $25 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 91¢ $7 13h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 78¢ $5 13h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? BUY Yes 92¢ $0 13h
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 13h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $23 15h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $11 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 72¢ $21 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 17h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY United States 90¢ $18 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $18 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $5 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 77¢ $6 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 73¢ $4 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 71¢ $14 33h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? BUY No 71¢ $22 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $746.76 · official $746.27 (match) · 1357 history records