Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x308b…35e9 crypto 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate71%161W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$8
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$58
weather 21% −$33
sports 7% −$2
world 2% +$16
politics 1% +$36
other 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.9% -1.4% 100% 50% -1.6%
≤30d 43 +1.1% -8.5% 79% 60% -10.5%
≤90d 226 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 32% -10.1%
all 226 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 32% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 32% -10.1%
10% -20.3% 18% -18.7%
15% -28.0% 11% -26.6%
20% -35.1% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses161 / 65
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)226 / 227
History coverage79d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 25? No 92¢ 94¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $23 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $21 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $32 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $19 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 05 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 +$2 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 31? Jun 02 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 31? Jun 02 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 31? Jun 02 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 1? May 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 1? May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $7 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 31? May 30 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 29? May 30 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 29? May 30 $9 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $19 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $15 +$7 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 28? May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23? May 27 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on May 23? May 27 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 22? May 22 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 22? May 22 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $26 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $19 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $16 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $35 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $32 13d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 86¢ $27 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 9? BUY No 88¢ $24 15d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $24 15d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 8? BUY No 94¢ $23 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $23 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? BUY No 83¢ $19 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? BUY Yes 87¢ $21 18d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5? BUY No 87¢ $19 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? BUY No 62¢ $2 23d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? BUY No 67¢ $2 23d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 1? BUY No 53¢ $2 23d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 1? BUY No 84¢ $2 23d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 1? BUY No 81¢ $2 23d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? BUY No 69¢ $2 23d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 1? BUY No 82¢ $2 23d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1? BUY No 63¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.26 · official $27.26 (match) · 462 history records