Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3089…92f6 other 341 markets active 0h ago coverage 680d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,923 (-4%) realized −$4,159 · open +$1,236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%65W / 173L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$27,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$3,876
14 days−$2,700
30 days−$4,658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$359
politics 31% −$267
sports 20% −$3,196
crypto 11% −$54
economics 1% +$295
tech 0% −$126
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -45.8% -51.0% 25% 21% -30.2%
≤30d 184 -37.3% -43.3% 26% 23% -22.2%
≤90d 202 -20.4% -28.0% 28% 24% -19.8%
all 238 -12.5% -20.8% 27% 21% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 21% -18.3%
10% -28.4% 18% -26.2%
15% -35.3% 17% -33.3%
20% -41.7% 16% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$74 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

680d coverage
Net worth$27,104
Realized−$4,159
Unrealized+$1,236
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses65 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions103
Markets (closed)238 / 341
History coverage680d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 103 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 80¢ 85¢ $11,754 $12,514 +$760 (+6%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 87¢ 88¢ $2,188 $2,218 +$30 (+1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,412 $1,461 +$49 (+4%)
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $1,008 $1,034 +$26 (+3%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 92¢ 95¢ $983 $1,018 +$35 (+4%)
Will Croatia win the World Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $768 $782 +$14 (+2%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $613 $684 +$71 (+12%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Diego County? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $517 $523 +$6 (+1%)
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 26¢ 46¢ $255 $446 +$191 (+75%)
Will Invictus Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 95¢ 97¢ $273 $280 +$6 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 78¢ 82¢ $259 $274 +$15 (+6%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 86¢ 81¢ $279 $265 −$14 (-5%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $267 $263 −$4 (-1%)
Will the Portland Fire make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? No 74¢ 81¢ $229 $251 +$22 (+10%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 42¢ 90¢ $111 $238 +$127 (+114%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? No 83¢ 88¢ $223 $237 +$14 (+6%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? No 76¢ 94¢ $163 $201 +$38 (+23%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 50¢ $52 $199 +$147 (+281%)
Will Angel Reese have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes 54¢ 71¢ $142 $187 +$45 (+32%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 14¢ $150 $182 +$32 (+21%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $172 $171 −$1 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $159 $164 +$5 (+3%)
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 55¢ 54¢ $168 $163 −$5 (-3%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $159 $155 −$4 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $155 $147 −$8 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 −$27 -51%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $63 −$62 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $77 −$76 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $127 +$72 +57%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $229 −$29 -13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $129 +$69 +54%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $182 +$266 +146%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $5,085 +$497 +10%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $48 +$8 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 +$15 +58%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $68 −$67 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $158 −$28 -18%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $148 +$65 +44%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $70 +$290 +414%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $129 +$4 +3%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $671 −$664 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $341 +$163 +48%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$82 +414%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 −$17 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $86 −$84 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $36 +$67 +188%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $159 +$36 +22%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $105 +$89 +85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $178 −$175 -98%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $63 −$62 -98%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 14 $322 −$318 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $500 +$208 +42%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $67 +$113 +169%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $630 −$625 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $92 18m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 18¢ $34 20m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $55 24m
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $159 31m
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage BUY No 17¢ $8 55m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $54 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $33 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 42¢ $113 1h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $156 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 17¢ $63 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $77 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $36 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 10¢ $10 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $46 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 32¢ $31 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 34¢ $7 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 35¢ $99 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 45¢ $91 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $81 7h
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $22 7h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $173 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,104.26 · official $27,098.33 (match) · 1096 history records