Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x3088…2391
sports · 625 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$371 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$450 · open −$79
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,841
Realized+$450
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses273 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$736
Open positions105
Markets (closed)519 / 625
History coverage23d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 105 History 519 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$898
7 days+$2,172
14 days+$5,635
30 days+$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 46¢ 76¢ $60 $99 +$40 (+66%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 85¢ 84¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 75¢ 74¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 82¢ 88¢ $79 $85 +$6 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 62¢ $69 $77 +$8 (+12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 48¢ 61¢ $60 $77 +$16 (+27%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 78¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $72 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $72 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $65 $66 +$2 (+2%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 65¢ 90¢ $48 $66 +$18 (+38%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 69¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $66 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 67¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 77¢ 81¢ $58 $60 +$3 (+5%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 88¢ 84¢ $62 $59 −$3 (-5%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $59 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $24 +$15 +64%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $26 +$15 +56%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $78 −$62 -79%
Les Wexner charged by June 30? Jun 13 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $48 +$7 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $106 +$30 +28%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $24 +$20 +82%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $66 −$23 -34%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $15 −$1 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $25 +$18 +72%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $74 +$29 +40%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $67 +$75 +111%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $27 +$54 +197%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $28 −$27 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $11 +$11 +109%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $40 +$71 +178%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 −$2 -14%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $207 +$40 +19%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $12 +$24 +206%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $15 +$14 +93%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $74 +$52 +71%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $29 +$4 +13%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $87 −$8 -9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $79 +$10 +12%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $34 +$2 +6%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $49 +$2 +3%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $43 +$27 +62%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $11 +$12 +101%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $48 $0 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $22 +$22 +101%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 11 $58 +$45 +78%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 11 $81 +$27 +34%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $57 +$79 +139%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 11 $70 +$3 +4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $53 +$40 +75%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $45 +$56 +125%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $59 +$85 +145%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $15 $0 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $25 +$19 +79%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 11 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $69 +$39 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% −$103
world 8% −$196
other 8% +$162
politics 3% +$286
tech 1% +$159
finance 1% +$28
culture 0% +$34
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 90¢ $39 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Seattle Mariners 92¢ $40 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 2¢ $0 1h
Les Wexner charged by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $68 1h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $54 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 98¢ $135 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 100¢ $44 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 42¢ $44 1h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) SELL KT Rolster 49¢ $14 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 96¢ $42 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 97¢ $103 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 99¢ $129 2h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 30¢ $0 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 59¢ $13 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $54 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $13 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $53 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $106 5h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 30¢ $0 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $72 7h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $81 8h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $14 8h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $5 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 67¢ $21 8h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 60¢ $12 8h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 +10.6% +0.0% 58% 55% +9.8%
≤30d 519 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 49% -8.8%
≤90d 519 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 49% -8.8%
all 519 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 49% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 49% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 45% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 40% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 35% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,840.56 · official $3,840.64 (match) · 1235 history records