Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x3082…78a8 crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%63W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$8
other 21% −$21
sports 3% +$5
politics 3% −$3
world 2% −$1
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 25% -17.9%
≤30d 24 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 25% -17.9%
≤90d 24 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 25% -17.9%
all 114 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 43% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 43% -11.7%
10% -19.6% 31% -20.2%
15% -27.4% 28% -27.9%
20% -34.5% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses63 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage139d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +92%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$10 +934%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +122%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +128%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 13 $2 $0 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 06 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 06 $7 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 06 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 06 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 06 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 06 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 06 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 06 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 06 $2 +$2 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 06 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 06 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 06 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 06 $3 +$5 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Mar 06 $2 −$2 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $5 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $2 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $0.92 (match) · 262 history records