Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x3082…9b55 sports 63 markets active 2d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,848 (-37%) realized −$22,848 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 41L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$993per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$810est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5,563
14 days−$1,682
30 days−$16,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$21,328
other 12% −$1,457
crypto 1% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -31.9% -38.4% 29% 29% -54.0%
≤30d 37 -19.5% -27.2% 38% 38% -50.6%
≤90d 63 -28.9% -35.7% 35% 35% -43.8%
all 63 -28.9% -35.7% 35% 35% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 35% -43.8%
10% -41.8% 35% -49.2%
15% -47.4% 33% -54.1%
20% -52.6% 30% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,110) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -52% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$578 vs −$878 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22,848
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$810
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage42d
Avg bet$993
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$1 -1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $999 −$984 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $365 −$360 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,691 −$1,427 -84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $708 +$392 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,011 −$2,000 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $761 +$737 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $507 −$341 -67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $286 +$465 +162%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $1,831 −$1,800 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,110 +$460 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $608 −$304 -50%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1,437 +$1,127 +78%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $101 −$57 -57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $295 +$326 +111%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2,887 +$2,531 +88%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $247 −$244 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $150 +$97 +64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $61 +$101 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $1,397 −$1,314 -94%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $122 −$121 -99%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $102 +$154 +152%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $254 −$135 -53%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $506 +$333 +66%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $243 +$193 +79%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 28 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $305 −$300 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 28 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $203 +$156 +77%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $1,417 +$785 +55%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $1,928 −$1,900 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $509 −$500 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $3,834 −$3,790 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $836 −$827 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 20 $6,244 −$6,173 -99%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 18 $989 −$974 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $1,751 −$1,730 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $203 +$161 +79%
Will SC Sagamihara win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $384 −$380 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $7,080 −$2,262 -32%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $1,817 +$463 +26%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 12 $305 −$300 -98%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $2,594 +$1,818 +70%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 10 $122 −$120 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $101 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $999 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $365 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 10¢ $264 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,100 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1,691 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,011 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $708 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,498 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 18¢ $166 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $761 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $752 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $305 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $132 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,570 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,110 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $1,526 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 28¢ $304 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $154 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $608 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $2,421 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $507 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $213 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Houston Astros 26¢ $44 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 58¢ $101 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $621 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $193 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records